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UBS Economics-Global Economic Perspectives _Recession probabilities elevat...-109777168

2024-08管理咨询8

Global Research and Evidence Lab Recession probabilities elevated but stable Recession talk has erupted again, but our models see no abrupt change

报告摘要

Global Research and Evidence Lab Recession probabilities elevated but stable Recession talk has erupted again, but our models see no abrupt change

核心要点

  1. 9 August 2024

报告信息

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UBS Economics-Global Economic Perspectives _Recession probabilities elevat...-109777168.pdf
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战略规划行业研究员
核心数据
  1. highlighting that the economy was undergoing a significant slowdown (from over 3%
  2. credit models, has dropped to 53% in July, from 60% a few months ago and a high of
  3. 75% a year ago. A primer on our recession models is here .
  4. momentum up or down. The implied recession probability in this model is now 80%, a
  5. probability dropped to 50% in July from 60% in the spring and 90% a year ago (Figure
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《UBS Economics-Global Economic Perspectives _Recession probabilities elevat...-109777168》主要包含哪些内容?

Global Research and Evidence Lab Recession probabilities elevated but stable Recession talk has erupted again, but our models see no abrupt change核心数据:highlighting that the economy was undergoing a significant slowdown (from over 3%;credit models, has dropped to 53% in July, from 60% a few months ago and a high of;75% a year ago. A primer on our recession models is here .。

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覆盖 2024 年,全文约 8。

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